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Part of: The 2026 South Carolina Senate Special Election

Dispatch

Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble

Across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt snapshots checked July 13, Nancy Mace was priced as a long-shot in the South Carolina Senate special-election scramble, ranging from tiny fractions of a percent on Polymarket to 3 cents on Kalshi and roughly 1.4 percent on Manifold. PredictIt showed 10 cents, but its stale order book made that a weak signal rather than a clean consensus.

Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble

"The headline chatter is one thing. The market board is colder."

After Lindsey Graham's death on July 11, 2026, Nancy Mace quickly became part of the public speculation around South Carolina's sudden Senate vacancy. The prediction-market board was far less enthusiastic.

Across five visible market snapshots checked July 13, Mace was priced near the floor: 3 cents on Kalshi, 0.05 percent in one Polymarket nominee market, 0.15 percent in a second Polymarket replacement market, and about 1.4 percent on Manifold. PredictIt showed 10 cents, but the order book was stale and thin enough that it should be treated as a weak signal, not a clean consensus.

Prediction markets are not polls. They are trader-priced snapshots, and thin or new markets can move sharply. But the snapshot is still useful: on the same afternoon Mace was drawing attention as a possible Graham-seat candidate, the most visible special-primary market was not treating her as a leading contender.

The cross-platform snapshot

Snapshot chart comparing Nancy Mace's prices across Kalshi, two Polymarket markets, Manifold, and PredictIt

Maceopedia chart from public market pages and session captures checked July 13, 2026. PredictIt is marked separately because the visible book was stale and thin.

The point is not that every site was measuring exactly the same thing. They were not. Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt use different contract wording, liquidity, and settlement terms. The useful read is the direction: none of the checked markets had traders treating Mace as a top-tier favorite.

Kalshi: 3 cents

Kalshi chart showing Nancy Mace's South Carolina Republican Senate special primary contract at 3 cents, down from 4 cents, with an ask that hit 5 cents this session

Kalshi's South Carolina special Republican primary Mace contract showed Mace at 3 cents, down from 4 cents, with the ask touching 5 cents during the session. That is the cleanest market-board number in the set: Mace was visible, tradable, and still priced as a long-shot.

Polymarket: 0.05 percent

Polymarket chart showing Nancy Mace at 0.05 percent in the Republican nominee market

Polymarket's "Will Nancy Mace be the new Republican nominee for Senate in SC?" market showed Mace at 0.05 percent. That is not just low single digits. It is a market price near zero.

Polymarket: 0.15 percent

Polymarket chart showing Nancy Mace at 0.15 percent in the replace-Graham market

A separate Polymarket event, "Will Nancy Mace replace Graham as SC Senator?", put her at 0.15 percent. Different wording, same basic signal: traders were not buying the Mace-to-Senate buzz at anything close to frontrunner odds.

Manifold: about 1.4 percent

Manifold chart showing Nancy Mace around 1.4 percent in a GOP nominee market for the 2026 South Carolina Senate race

Manifold's GOP nominee market for the 2026 South Carolina Senate race had Mace around 1.4 percent. That was higher than the two Polymarket Mace-specific contracts, but still deep long-shot territory.

PredictIt: 10 cents, but stale

PredictIt chart showing Nancy Mace at 10 cents with a stale and thin order-book caveat

PredictIt's SC Senate GOP special primary market showed Mace at 10 cents, but the visible order book also showed a stale or unfilled structure, including the 50-cent placeholder rather than a real consensus. That makes PredictIt the least reliable number in the set. It is included here for completeness, not because it overrides the broader cross-market signal.

Earlier public screenshots

Polymarket screenshot of the South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner market, showing Russell Fry leading and Nancy Mace further down the outcome list at below 1 percent

Polymarket's live chart showed the top outcomes. The outcome list below the chart showed Nancy Mace below 1 percent in an earlier capture.

Kalshi screenshot of the South Carolina Republican Senate nominee market still showing Lindsey Graham at 100 percent after Graham's death

An earlier Kalshi public nominee page capture still showed the stale pre-vacancy Graham market. The Kalshi Mace-specific special-primary contract above is the more relevant number for this dispatch.

The read

The useful read is narrow but clear:

  • Kalshi had Mace at 3 cents in the special-primary contract.
  • Polymarket had Mace at 0.05 percent in a nominee-specific market and 0.15 percent in a replace-Graham market.
  • Manifold had Mace around 1.4 percent.
  • PredictIt showed 10 cents, but with a stale/unfilled order-book caveat.
  • A prediction market is not an election forecast or poll, but it is a live measure of what traders are willing to price.

That makes the contrast sharp. Mace may be getting the headlines. The checked prediction markets were not giving her the probability.

Sources:

Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble: image 1
Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble: image 2
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Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble: image 4
Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble: image 5
Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble: image 6
Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble: image 7
Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble: image 8
Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble: image 9