prediction markets

Dispatches

• July 17, 2026 · Dispatch

  Trump endorses Lindsey Graham's sister for a full Senate term, and puts Nancy Mace's decision in a harder box

  President Trump endorsed Sen. Darline Graham Nordone for a full six-year term on July 17, 2026, the same day Axios reported that Rep. Nancy Mace is still considering a Senate bid despite the endorsement. The move closes the appointment lane Mace had been eyeing and forces a choice: run against Trump's chosen candidate in a primary where she trails at 10 percent, or stand down. This dispatch catalogs the full timeline, from Mace's 'I would be an idiot not to at least look at it' media tour on July 12, to her team's viability polling, to the Emerson poll showing her tied for third at 10 percent, to Trump's endorsement of Graham's sister.

• July 13, 2026 · Dispatch

  Prediction Markets Put Nancy Mace Near the Floor in the Graham-Seat Scramble

  Across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt snapshots checked July 13, Nancy Mace was priced as a long-shot in the South Carolina Senate special-election scramble, ranging from tiny fractions of a percent on Polymarket to 3 cents on Kalshi and roughly 1.4 percent on Manifold. PredictIt showed 10 cents, but its stale order book made that a weak signal rather than a clean consensus.